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I saw this story yesterday and am not entirely sure what’s behind it.
Obviously, this “evacuation” is being used by the Syrian government more as a way or pressuring Lebanon, similar to their closing of the border crossings over the past month or two (with the same alleged “security concerns” being cited).

Needless to say, Syria has never had a problem flooding Lebanon with students, migrant workers, and of course, military and intelligence personnel through years of civil war and worse unrest. So forgive me if I don’t buy their sudden “concern for their civilians”. This smacks of a political move. One can only speculate that something big is being planned for mid-month. Who knows.

Just saw this story in the Jerusalem Post. Possibly part of the same “plans” that are in motion:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1183459215876&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Well yikes! Double yikes! I’ll even go triple yikes –we’ve seen enough war and fighting in this region to last several lifetimes and then some. I really can’t think that Syria would start a war with us, alone –they’ve always acted in tandem with other countries and both Egypt and Jordan are definitely not going there anymore. Nerve wracking nonetheless.

Yaser, what do you know about Dr. Ibrahim Suleiman? When he was here he got a lot of media attention but no one really knows how much weight his word carries and very conflicting responses have come out of Syria about his statements.

I suppose the other possibility is that something is planned to happen in Lebanon “coming soon” that will not be very nice –assassinations? Hezbollah doing something stupid? –and they are afraid of the backlash?

That doesn’t look good.

Another side of the situation: Assad has reportely already invaded Lebanon openly.

It’s almost certain now that there will be a war this summer. I also think the Baathists are trying to make sure that their intended victims are very distracted by lots of dangerous things happening in the neighborhood, as Abbas and his allies were [very] distracted by Nahr el-Bared immediately before the Gaza coup.

I’m guessing that Syria is indeed going to attack Israel, and between Syria and Iran and Russian armaments and long-range missiles, Israel needs to regard this as an existential threat. A Syrian-backed coup in Lebanon is also possible after the success of Syria’s gambit in Gaza. Israel needs to assume that it is the target. The Lebanese need to assume that Lebanon is the target. The “west” needs to assume that Syria is about to open Pandora’s box, and the “west” needs to be prepared to provide direct support against Syria in event of either attack.

When dealing with poisonous snakes, it does not pay to give them second chances. In the name of “resistance”, the cynical Arab world and the naive “west” continue to protect the Baathists and the mullahs from suffering the consequences of their own actions. The fascist government that controls Damascus has had chance after chance after chance, with the results that we see today.

Not a happy situation.

Zvi –ack do not say so. You are usually so on target. My mother is arriving next week -there cannot be a war while she is visiting! I will not allow it!!

But honestly, do you really think Syria would attack with only Iran giving shadow support from behind? We would bomb the crud out of them and not only do I not want anymore bombings of anyone, but I simply can’t see how they would want to open themselves up to that kind of damage. Syria does not have a strong military. It would get very ugly if they have hezbollah attacking from Lebanon and they get hamas attacking stronger from Gaza. Very ugly indeed but more ugly for them than for us, I think.

My g-d talk about an unhappy situation.

Ack.

I don’t have any special insight, Yaeli. You’re probably right. I am being paranoid.

Bullies generally attack the weak first, and it’s clear that the Assad regime are chewing rocks over Lebanon continuing to resist them despite escalating levels of violence on their part. That is a more serious danger to a dictatorship like Syria than Israel continuing to hold onto the Golan, which has been going on for 40 years and hasn’t hurt their credibility.

But the Baathists and the mullahs learned all the wrong lessons from last summer’s war, and given their mix of blindness and canniness, combined with the uselessness of Olmert, I’m still worrying. Some of those checkpoints have been in place for 40 years. Israel cannot afford to proceed with “business as usual” given the possibility of Syrian attack. It needs to be prepared.

I’m probably over-thinking this.

I cannot believe that in the 21st century people are still killing each other, planning to kill each other, filled with hatred toward each other—what madness.

Zvi -

We all know there’s going to be a war. We are getting ready – the people, that is. And should our scumbag leaders fail to protect us again…. we’ll just do it ourselves.

Lynne -

It’s the same people as’ been clubbing each other over the head with stone clubs and kidnapping each other’s womenfolk. What do you expect?

Sadly I think the Raccoon is right in that human nature has not changed since we all lumbered out of our caves back in cave-man times. We still think in terms of tribes, as we’ve so often discussed, whether they are little local tribes or whether they are the wider tribes of our nation or our ethnic background. We still resort to violence. As Ramzi pointed out not too long ago –you see the things that get played out between groups and between nations right down to the smaller tribes of the nuclear family: people abuse their spouses, they abuse their children, they argue and hate one another over small issues. Just check how family members often behave when it comes to inheritance issues. No, sadly, we still have cavepeople mentality even though we now walk upright and some drive BMWs.

Oh no!! Just read this in Ynet:
“Lebanon ‘to erupt in 1 week’ Syria calls on citizens to evacuate Lebanon, reports say; Expert: Civil war possible.

“In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon’s current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007,” the MEMRI dispatch said.

July 15 comes one day before a special UN Security Council meeting which is expected to discuss the possibility of stationing international experts on the Syria-Lebanon border, in order monitor the ongoing illegal cross border arms traffic to Hizbullah, thought to be originating from Iran and Syria.

The UN Security Council is also expected to meet next week to discuss a key report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a development which may bode badly for Syria.

I doubt Syria would start a war against Israel. I have to assume the target here is Lebanon. But there could be a number of scenarios Syria has in mind. Opening a war front against Israel via Hezbollah in South Lebanon is an option. While not a direct attack from Syria, it would serve as a ‘distraction’ and open the door for Syria to stage its coup in Lebanon, or invade Lebanon under the pretext of “putting an end to the instabilty coming from South Lebanon” (a line the west has swallowed before).

We all agree though. Something bad is about to happen…

Damn it.

Everyone stay safe.

Zvi, I second that.

Raccoon, some people are criminally crazy, and these are the people who scare me to death.

Lynne -

I worry more about sane monsters than insane hunams.

An example:

“It was so awful that, in my update for the day, I wrote that I have met with the devil today,” Canon Andrew White told British Broadcasting Corp. radio. “At one moment in the meeting he said, ‘Those who cure you are going to kill you.”‘

Source

That was a meeting between a hunam and a sane monster.

Raccoon, I think that blind hatred and the willingness and desire to harm other innocent people is a form of craziness, temporary or permanent. The person may speak rationally and coherently, but the ideology is crazy. Examples of this can be found all over the world within political groups and in dangerous criminals working alone without any political agenda. Predators basically.

wow,guys ,chill out! I really don’t see so much to worry about ,Syria attacking Israel is very unlikely and all that talk about evacuation of Syrian students and workers is just a move to pressure the 14 March majority in Lebanon even further ( as the case with the closing of the borders) I honestly don’t anticipate a bad thing happening this summer ,
I concede that the regime we have here is stupid and arrogant but nevertheless they are incapable of inflicting serious damage like igniting a civil war in Lebanon or a war with Israel becaue it will their end .
people here are fed up with the practises of the regime and maintaing security is maybe the only reason they still in power ,if that is gone the regime will fall just like that and they know that very clearly.
as about Mr.Ibrahiem Sulieman actually I wanted to write a post about his visit to Israel but it slipped somehow ,I was going to write about how just like in Israel ,there is much skepticism about his role and who does he represent ,and I have been following his activities, recently he and a senior Israeli negotiator gave a lecture in London laying out the prospects of a possible deal between Syria and Israel and I support his quest for peace ,also I believe that working towards getting the parties to the negotiating table again is the only way to diffuse the tensions in the region and I have been hearing some indication that Israel is wiling to go down this path .

Good to hear from you Yaser.

And good to hear that the people there are getting fed up.

I’ve stated often times that the continued instability the regime creates around it has been the only way it maintains its hold on power. As Yaser states, any kind of war would be the end of the regime. Any kind of peace would also be the end of the regime. The status quo is what the regime is after.

On a separate note…I still don’t see much news coverage at all about the fact that the Syrian military has invaded 3km into Lebanese territory last week and no one seems to care. I keep thinking the story must have been false. But I saw this today on Michael Totten’s blog, regarding that story:

A few days ago Lebanese daily newspaper Al Mustaqbal quietly reported a limited Syrian invasion of Lebanon. (Via Naharnet.)

Syrian troops on Thursday reportedly have penetrated three kilometers into Lebanese territories, taking up positions in the mountains near Yanta in east Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

The daily Al Mustaqbal, citing sources who confirmed the cross-border penetration, did not say when the procedure in the Fahs Hill overlooking Deir al-Ashaer in the Rashaya province took place.
The sources said Syrian troops, backed by bulldozers, were fortifying positions “in more than one area” along the Lebanese border, erecting earth mounds and digging “hundreds” of trenches and individual bunkers.

This happened immediately before I left town for two days. When I returned I was surprised to find no mention of this whatsoever anywhere else in the media. I assumed the story had to be false. How could Syria invade three kilometers into any region of Lebanon without triggering a diplomatic and media storm?

So I asked Michael Young, opinion page editor at Beirut’s Daily Star, if the story was bogus.

“It is true,” he said, “but the problem is that the 3 kilometers are in isolated areas, so that it isn’t making headlines. However, the UN will be discussing border issues this week, I think, and that will be brought up. The Syrians are ratcheting up the pressure, but with the attack against UN troops in the south, they are, as one UN official put it, playing with fire.”

If Israel sent the IDF three kilometers into Lebanon and started digging trenches and building bunkers it would make news all over the world. But Syria does it and everyone shrugs. Hardly anyone even knows it happened at all.

Syria can, apparently, get away with just about anything. I could hardly blame Assad at this point if he believes, after such an astonishing non-response, that he can reconquer Beirut. So far he can kill and terrorize and invade and destroy with impunity, at least up to a point. What is that point? Has anyone in the U.S., Israel, the Arab League, the European Union, or the United Nations even considered the question

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001483.html

Yaser, it is good to get your point of view on this matter. And, comforting, too

I think Yaser is right. Syria is just applying pressure. The 3 killometer is invasion is part of
this move to pressure. At the same time, Syria has irredentist claims to Lebanon and the invasion
provides it with more dramatic opportunities if they arise. But such drama is not in the near future.

Yaser, it is extremely good to hear your point of view and it certainly helps me to chill out a bit. Since things seem to just explode out of left field in this region I think we are all as jumpy as scalded cats.

It was particularly good to hear your take on the perception of Mr. Suleiman in Syria. Hopefully the push for peaceful resolutions on the ground level is growing in all our countries. Our current crop of politicians man, bah, a pox on them.

BV –yes I read that on Michael’s blog the other day and did a double-take. I haven’t seen it covered in the MSM (mainstream media) at all. Everyone cross fingers for Michael’s safety by the way as he is in Iraq covering events there this week and, well for a couple of weeks, I believe. I’m very much looking forward to his in-depth reporting of the situation on the ground.

Stephen –I think you are probably right now that I’m taking a deep breath and Yaser’s advice to chill out a bit. We’ve just had so much drama of late on so many fronts it is difficult not to expect more.

well sorry i didn’t read all the comments, but syrians are evacuating their people from lebanon, franc and canada and the state are telling their people who are in lebanon or coming to lebanon that they are not responsable for them if they stay there, so i guess there is somthing that will happen, i dont think there will ever be a syrian attac over leanon, they don’t have the guts to do it, but moste probably somthing between israel and lebanon, and ofcours its all casu of hizbullah, unless they brake the civil war, then i would like to ask everyoen to run away, caus that would be like opening the doors of hell
lets hope things won;t get to that point!

Elie, I agree. Let’s hope that things do not get out of hand! Glad to read your comments!

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